Ju-87G Stuka

[Furio]

Originally Posted by Pursuivant

I have no idea. Rudel didn't describe the incident in detail. He claims that the Russian pilot was either shot by his gunner or lost control due to the backwash of the Stuka's propeller. All we know is that Rudel and his gunner survived and the Russian pilot did not.

The incident is possibly historically accurate, since the Soviet ace Shestakov went missing in the same operational area where Rudel was operating. Beyond that, there's no real evidence.

But, I think that we're in agreement that the odds heavily favor a competently-flown fighter against a Stuka.

The point is: all we know is what Rudel told about this encounter. And his tale is very suspicious. He was flying a plane with much slower top speed, much lower manoeuvrability and probably higher stalling speed (depending on load, of course). Its only advantage was the presence of a gunner, and we should eventually applaud gunner’s marksmanship, but we know that most, if not all, light bombers had similar defensive armament, and usually suffered heavy to appalling losses, regardless their pilots ability.

Overall, Rudel’s memories defy all the rules of probability and his victory tally makes one wonder how Germany lost the war.

[Janosch]

I've always thought that Rudel was a very handsome man.

As a side note, the style of his writing is absolutely hilarious! He's so serious that it's funny. Also, the real bragging in his book is not the things he claims to have killed, but the things he claims to have said in various situations.

[majorfailure]

Originally Posted by Furio

As I see it, if a type can operate only with complete air superiority, it has no true tactical value. It’s a weapon you can use only when you’re already winning the battle.

Anit-tank planes can also operate in an environment with local air superiority -so you do not need the total air control.
But the whole concept is questionable, though - as the western allies somewhat proved in WW2, using fighter-bombers to do the ground work.

Originally Posted by Furio

The A10 is totally incomparable, being technologically in a different world. However, its real value in a symmetrical battle, with real air opposition, was never demonstrated.

Technologically different, yes, but same concept. In a symmetrical battle it would fare as well as Shturmoviks in 43 - okay, not brilliant. Without any form of control in the air that thing would have been about as useless as the Hs129 in 44.

Originally Posted by Furio

Overall, Rudel’s memories defy all the rules of probability and his victory tally makes one wonder how Germany lost the war.

There were quite a lot of soldiers fighting in all WW2. So I would not say it defies the rules of probability. Say among all these million soldiers there were a few thousand as talented as Rudel, that could be right couldn't it?. And then just say that among ten thousand soldiers there was one that was as lucky not getting killed as he was -could be right? -Then just because you have that many soldiers fighting, you will have a reasonable probability to get one to a few Rudel.
And Germany would have lost the war with ten thousand Rudels. Biting off more than you can chew is always a bad idea, and they tried to bite with the mouth still full.

[Pursuivant]

Originally Posted by Furio

The point is: all we know is what Rudel told about this encounter.

Maybe Rudel's gunner was like the AI Ace gunners in IL2, with immunity to G-forces and laser-like accuracy and ranging ability!

Other than that, we can debate the technical merits of the planes involved all day, but I think that ultimately the outcome of the fight can be summed up by two fighter pilot maxims:

"I'd rather be lucky than good." (And, if nothing else, Rudel had the devil's own luck.)

"It's not the plane, it's the man in the plane."

Originally Posted by Furio

Overall, Rudel’s memories defy all the rules of probability and his victory tally makes one wonder how Germany lost the war.

Agreed. I think that Rudel's victory total against ground vehicles is probably (unintentionally) overstated, like the kill claims for just every other ground attack pilot.

His total of air-to-air kills is probably fairly accurately, since all his claims had to be verified by very strict Luftwaffe kill-claiming procedures. While there was still some overclaiming under this system, I think that the odds are that Rudel is legitimately an ace pilot (i.e., 5+ aerial kills).

His sortie total is probably also fairly accurate, since his pilot's logbook could easily be verified by other sources. Of all Rudel's achievements, this is probably his most amazing feat. You don't survive over 2,000 sorties as a ground attack pilot on the Eastern front without a remarkable combination of luck and skill.

Originally Posted by Furio

Overall, Rudel’s memories defy all the rules of probability and his victory tally makes one wonder how Germany lost the war.

That's one of the tremendously depressing things about modern warfare. When there are millions of men fighting, the actions of one man on the battlefield, no matter how heroic, seldom make a difference in the overall course of the war. Instead, impersonal factors like logistics, national economic output, demographics, and weather play more of a role.

[RPS69]

Originally Posted by Pursuivant

That's one of the tremendously depressing things about modern warfare. When there are millions of men fighting, the actions of one man on the battlefield, no matter how heroic, seldom make a difference in the overall course of the war. Instead, impersonal factors like logistics, national economic output, demographics, and weather play more of a role.

Ouch! All of my dreams of counting, were destroyed! You are mean!

[Furio]

Original topic’s thread has been largely stolen, with my contribution, so some apologize are needed. However, I’ve read many interesting posts, including those I disagree with, and I must thank everyone for sharing their thoughts, and ask for everyone’s patience, as I’m going for another round.

Originally Posted by majorfailure

There were quite a lot of soldiers fighting in all WW2. So I would not say it defies the rules of probability. Say among all these million soldiers there were a few thousand as talented as Rudel, that could be right couldn't it?. And then just say that among ten thousand soldiers there was one that was as lucky not getting killed as he was -could be right? -Then just because you have that many soldiers fighting, you will have a reasonable probability to get one to a few Rudel.

As I understand it, probability doesn’t work this way, but in the opposite direction. There’s not any law requiring Rudel as the final outcome. In other words, it’s not like a National Lottery where, as thin as the winning chances are, a number is ultimately drawn. A war can be – and most probably is – fought without any single soldier reaching such mythical results.
We are talking of people that risked their life with each sortie, and each time faced no small probability of being killed. Regardless of your magic evasive manoeuvres, how many times you can evade anti-aircraft fire and enemy fighters? If your plane is hit, how many times bullets and shells can pierce wings, fuel tanks and fuselage, leaving you alive? If your plane is shot down, how many times can you bail out or land in the field without crashing with fatal result, or without being captured?
2.500 missions and 30 times shot down are the numbers declared by Rudel. To put it simply, I consider them unbelievable, period. Logbooks and documents are falsifiable for propaganda purpose.

Originally Posted by majorfailure

And Germany would have lost the war with ten thousand Rudels. Biting off more than you can chew is always a bad idea, and they tried to bite with the mouth still full.

Here I disagree, and I think numbers disagree also. If we take for good Rudel’s victory tally, just 240 of Rudel-type men would have destroyed 124,560 tanks, more that the total built in Russia during the whole war. Now, let’s divide Rudel’s efficiency by a factor of ten, for a victory tally of 50 destroyed tanks each. Just 2.491 pilots would have been enough to obtain the same result. If we consider that Russian tanks faced also many other dangers, mainly German panzers, jagdpanzers and 88 mm. guns, a much lower kill number was needed to win the war. It’s just a guess, but 25,000 destroyed tanks could have been more than enough to change history. And to obtain that result just 500 pilots, each one with one tenth of Rudel’s victory tally, are needed.
Play a little with different numbers, if you like, but the picture doesn’t change that much and, Rudel apart, says something about anti-tank weapons efficiency.

[RPS69]

Furio, what you are doing is very similar to some religious man, that was very upset with some enlightnend frenchman that demonstrated God's non-existance.
In revenge, he demonstrated Napoleon non-existance while he was still alive. To the point that he confirmed the truth of his thesis after knowing Napoleon's death, stating that before demonstrating his thesis was wrong, they preferred to kill Napoleon, so to not have the need to counter demonstrate nothing...

Statistics could always be arranged on a convenient way, to afirm whatever you want.

But while Majorfailure stement was on the uniqueness side, you tried the reciprocate, and that is always a false condition, at least using the same simplification.

Nazi Germany never build so many Ju87, and Hs129 to generate so many Rudells. So if you want to extrapolate for the number built, there was only one Rudell, so to have 2500 Rudell's, you need to multiply the actual number of each type flown by Rudell, for the number of aircraft and attack pilots available. This number would be higher than the whole availability of aircraft on aviation history!

[Pursuivant]

Furio has a point in that Rudel was at least partially a creation of Nazi propaganda. And, his kill claims might have been inflated, either for propaganda reasons or just due to "fog of war."

Are there non-biased, post-WW2 analyses of Rudel's war record?

My guess is that there's probably a lot of truth to the legend, but I'm not going to take Rudel's word for all of it. In particular, his kill claims for ground vehicles might be badly overstated.

RPS69 makes a great point that the Stuka G was a very rare bird. Certainly it was a specialist's tool, introduced at a time when Germany was rapidly running to out of qualified combat pilots.

When we can create missions with hundreds of aircraft of the same type with a few button clicks we can forget how scarce some planes actually were.

[Furio]

Originally Posted by RPS69

Furio, what you are doing is very similar to some religious man, that was very upset with some enlightnend frenchman that demonstrated God's non-existance.
In revenge, he demonstrated Napoleon non-existance while he was still alive. To the point that he confirmed the truth of his thesis after knowing Napoleon's death, stating that before demonstrating his thesis was wrong, they preferred to kill Napoleon, so to not have the need to counter demonstrate nothing...

RPS, the story about Napoleon is interesting and funny, and says a lot about the times we live in. That said, my English must be very bad, if an exercise in scepticism gives the feeling of a religious zealot. In any case, I don’t take lightly people’s feelings, so let me say something that should be obvious: I respect everyone’s opinion, no matter how much I disagree, and I never duel intentionally with anyone. I’ve read many interesting points in this thread, food for thoughts and incentive for research. I thank again everyone for this, Majorfailure included.

Originally Posted by RPS69

Statistics could always be arranged on a convenient way, to afirm whatever you want.

I disagree. To demonstrate whatever you want you need to falsify numbers, and I didn’t do that. Moreover, I didn’t use complicate statistic methods or tricks, just simple, elementary math. And I never talked about 2,500 Rudels unleashed on Earth, a frightening thought!
Perhaps I was unclear, perhaps there’s something wrong in my reasoning, so it’s wiser to take a fresh start. We have these numbers.
2,500 missions claimed by Rudel.
30 times shot down, as above.
519 tank kills, as above.
Now we need the approximate number of tanks fielded by Russia. As usual, the net gives a lot of different numbers. Somewhere I found 124,560 tanks produced by Soviet Union from January 41 to December 45. Some should be subtracted, being built after war’s end, but lend lease tanks should be added. I propose the estimate number below.
130,000 tanks fielded by Soviet Union during the war.
Some simple math gives us these results.
251 Rudels would have destroyed all 130,000 tanks.
231 Rudels if the tanks were 120,000.
192 Rudels if the tanks were 100,000, and so on.
Russian tanks suffered losses from German panzers, jagd-panzers and antitank guns. On top of these, how many tanks needed to be destroyed by air attack alone for Germany to win the war?
48 Rudels would have destroyed 25,000 tanks (48.1 Rudels, to be precise).
19 Rudels would have destroyed 10,000 tanks (19.2 Rudels, to be precise).
My guess is that 10,000 tanks, all destroyed on the battlefield or in the vicinity, would have been more than enough. A first conclusion can be drawn: not Rudel alone, but a small number of his peers would have changed the course of history.
Let us make a further step, and consider less formidable pilots and comparing them to the above numbers. We consider pilots with a victory tally of 50 kill each (a little less than one tenth of Rudel’s claims).
500 “one-tenth Rudels” would have destroyed 25,000 tanks.
200 “one-tenth Rudels” would have destroyed 10,000 tanks.
A second conclusion can be drawn: a relatively small (500 at most, 200 more probably) number of “one-tenth-Rudels” would have changed the course of history.

From the above numbers, if reasonably correct, I draw my own conclusion: Rudel was a braggart. The real value of anti-tank planes (and other anti-tank weapons) was modest.

Returning to facts and numbers, let’s consider the 2,500 combat missions flown by Rudel. If I remember correctly, USAAF Eight Air Force retired crews after 25 missions, to afford them fair survival chances. Certainly USAAF was conservative, but Rudel claimed to have flown 100 times these 25 missions. Even quadrupling the American limit to 100 missions, Rudel claimed 25 times that number. Just think about how risky Eight Air Force missions were, multiply that risk 25 times and you end up with Rudel’s career.

From the above numbers, if reasonably correct, I draw my own conclusion: Rudel was a braggart. In reality, he flew fewer missions, or most of these had no risk at all.

30 times shot down. I know that Rudel was severely wounded and lost a leg, but just think a little at this number. Try to hit an airplane for 30 times with bullets and shells, always leaving the pilot alive. Pilots apart, for 30 times the plane receive fatal damage: one time the engine is stopped, another the fuel tank sets on fire or explode, control linkages are severed, wings or tail are shot away, and each time the pilot bail out or crashland successfully, and always comes out alive and is never captured.
There’s no need for statistical analysis here.

Conclusion, I’m not saying that Rudel didn’t exist, but that he was a braggart. I went a little off talking about falsified documents. This is not necessary. Just in case, I say it again: all the above is my opinion, and I’m smiling, not grinding my teeth.

[majorfailure]

Originally Posted by Furio

There’s not any law requiring Rudel as the final outcome. In other words, it’s not like a National Lottery where, as thin as the winning chances are, a number is ultimately drawn. A war can be – and most probably is – fought without any single soldier reaching such mythical results.

Never said "require", just said allows. And how ever improbable it may be, not impossible.

Originally Posted by Furio

2.500 missions and 30 times shot down are the numbers declared by Rudel. To put it simply, I consider them unbelievable, period. Logbooks and documents are falsifiable for propaganda purpose.

In a state so focused to document everything correctly, even their own war crimes? And at least for missions flown, there would have been witnesses to every take-off and every landing. Not impossible to do, but I'd bet some witness would have come forward after the war and tried to debunk the myth then. The shotdowns should even today be verifyable by comparing documents.

Originally Posted by Furio

Here I disagree, and I think numbers disagree also. If we take for good Rudel’s victory tally, just 240 of Rudel-type men would have destroyed 124,560 tanks, more that the total built in Russia during the whole war. Now, let’s divide Rudel’s efficiency by a factor of ten, for a victory tally of 50 destroyed tanks each. Just 2.491 pilots would have been enough to obtain the same result. If we consider that Russian tanks faced also many other dangers, mainly German panzers, jagdpanzers and 88 mm. guns, a much lower kill number was needed to win the war. It’s just a guess, but 25,000 destroyed tanks could have been more than enough to change history. And to obtain that result just 500 pilots, each one with one tenth of Rudel’s victory tally, are needed.
Play a little with different numbers, if you like, but the picture doesn’t change that much and, Rudel apart, says something about anti-tank weapons efficiency.

You know i was deliberately overexaggerating, do you?

But let's just extend this a little further. It is just too much fun.
Ten thousand Rudels would not have been able to kill as many tanks each as Rudel did, even given no shortage on planes and fuel and so on.
Rudel was operating in a target rich environment - he usually should have found more targets than he was able to shoot at. But if there were more Rudels around it gets increasingly difficult to find targets to the point where more than one Rudel is hunting the last available enemy vehicle - and they need to find it first.
So 10000 Rudels may be able to largely kill any AFVs the Red Army could throw at the Germans - still the Wehrmacht needs to occupy Russia with lots of ground to cover and infantry, artillery, airforce still defending. Already overextended supply lines getting even more extended, making any partisan warfare more effective - impossible to occupy all of Russia in time. And after total occupation the war is not won, there are still enemies, one you just gave a big breathing space(Britain), and one who is still powering up, and by that time - maybe unknowingly - has degraded your ally Japan from a vital to a medium threat (Midway).
So i do think even with the help of ten thousand Rudels the Germans would not have been able to conquer Russia, Great Britain and North Africa in time to make it impossible for the US to get seriously involved in the ETO, which in the end should highly likely lead to defeat - even if it may prolong the war for a few years - in the end your leadership errors kill you -and attacking any and all powers around you except a few allies at the same time is even beyond dumb.

Originally Posted by Furio

30 times shot down. I know that Rudel was severely wounded and lost a leg, but just think a little at this number. Try to hit an airplane for 30 times with bullets and shells, always leaving the pilot alive. Pilots apart, for 30 times the plane receive fatal damage: one time the engine is stopped, another the fuel tank sets on fire or explode, control linkages are severed, wings or tail are shot away, and each time the pilot bail out or crashland successfully, and always comes out alive and is never captured.
There’s no need for statistical analysis here.

As I said he must have been one of the luckiest pilots in that war.