proof on the common folk knowledge on destiny, ugly lottery numbers

[raaaid]

go here:

http://www.random.org/cgi-bin/randby...16384&format=b

generate a 16834 binary string

you will have there a big bunch of lottery numbers of binary 8 digits

now your gonna search with your browser 5 digits ugly strings vs five digits beautifull strings(being five digit strings make it can only appear once in each lottery number)

so i search the ugly string 11111 =1262hits
the ugly 00000 =1296 hits

the beautifull 10101=1712 hits
the breath taking 01010= 1705 hits

edit:

a discovery i made on football pools:

imagine the pool is 8 matches with two posible outcomes

i bet for double1010101 and 1010101double

you bet for double1111111 and 1111111double

each pay four bets

i win 244 times

you win 195 times

check it here by searching 1111111 or 1010101

http://www.random.org/cgi-bin/randby...16384&format=b


edit:

what i think its going on here is that with youre bet you bet two times for 11111111 one for 01111111 and one time for 11111110 while i do four completly different bets

but the caught is if the prize its 1 million dollar for getting right the football pool on 11111111 you have two winner tickets but the million dollars is divided between the winners so it would make no difference for you to win one time or two times since however you win one time or two times its youre gettin one million dollars

so you betting on double1111111 and 1111111double pay four bets but actually are just purchasing 3 numbers

while me betting on double1010101 and 1010101double im paying four bets and purchasing four numbers

im getting an edge on you of 25% well but football spools have a 50% edge so theres a long way to go

[WTE_Galway]

Originally Posted by raaaid

edit:

what i think its going on here is that with youre bet you bet two times for 11111111 one for 01111111 and one time for 11111110 while i do four completly different bets

but the caught is if the prize its 1 million dollar for getting right the football pool on 11111111 you have two winner tickets but the million dollars is divided between the winners so it would make no difference for you to win one time or two times since however you win one time or two times its youre gettin one million dollars

oh yes .. but it DOES make a big difference if there are some other people with the same number in addition to you.

Having the same number twice will double your winnings if two or more people share the winning number.

To calculate your advantage you need to factor the likelihood of other people having your number as well as you into your probabilities.

[raaaid]

Jornada 4 / 2011

Pleno al 15 (15 aciertos) 2095 75,00 EUR

oh yes i see imagine you get all numbers right but the pool was so easy there are 2095 winners winning each 75 euro

better not have told the boss to go to hell

[raaaid]

Originally Posted by WTE_Galway

oh yes .. but it DOES make a big difference if there are some other people with the same number in addition to you.

Having the same number twice will double your winnings if two or more people share the winning number.

To calculate your advantage you need to factor the likelihood of other people having your number as well as you into your probabilities.

i was researching and theres a caught with football pools at least in spain

if you make for independent bets 11111111,11111111,01111111 and 11111110

and 111111111 turns out you have two winning tickets of first cattegory and two of second ctattegory

but if you bet on double111111double and 11111111 turns out you dont get two winning tickets of first category and two of second but one of first cattegory and two winning ticlets of second cattegory

omg what a scammers like if the 45% house edge wasnt enough

edit:

TIN FOIL HAT ON

all right you can agree than on an undefined length binary string the number 11 will appear every six digits

but on a two digit string it will appear 1 time evry FOUR

well its so easy that i find it scarry

instead of filling a football pool every week fill all the future ones in a rwo taking this into account that in binary 11 happens every six digits and in trinary every 52 instead of four or 27 if you filled it according proabaility starting from scratch every week

ill keep the tinfoil hat seems it works

edit:

theres like the most common face what about the most common number

1 happens every two times, 11 happens every 6 times,111 happens every 14 times

1010110101011101011

[WTE_Galway]

Are you sure your not just creating a variant of the Monty Hall problem ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

[raaaid]

Originally Posted by WTE_Galway

Are you sure your not just creating a variant of the Monty Hall problem ?

o thank so much galway i finally figure out, i used to disbelieve this totally now i see i was wrong:

when picking the first door the most likely is the car is not there

so the presenter opening a door which it isnt is telling you most likely where it is

i hope others beside me and you see the beauty of this problem

edit:

imagine the game there are a trillion doors

in only one you find true love and all your dreamins come true

in all the ohters theres eteran fire

say pick one:

the first door

the devil opens all the doors except the one you pick and other

he asks you:

do you want to swap?

well i guess rectify is from wise men

of course you could have a twisted mind and since he is a devil think he is trying to fool you for you got it right at first

edit:


there are 3 doors only one with a prize

the previous week the presentor revealed a goat

so on the day you play there aare only 2 doors left but you think there are 3 since you missed the show last week

the presentor ask you pick a door:

you say number 3

the prsentor says: seems we have a dumb concursant number 3 is not an option pick other

you say number two

the presentor says:

do you wanna switch

you should switch and youll have a bigger than 50% chance to win

youre gonna pick a left door 2/3 of times and youre gonna show your lack of memeory 1/3

on the times you show lack of memory picking the already opened door its a 50% chance since the opening of the door event is proven to have already passed pseudoparadoxically

but on the times that the event of the opening is percieved as just hapening for what your info is worth due to missing the previous show
well when this peculiarity of info happens if you switch you win 66% of times

so with the switch trick and pretending retard you have 2/3 of times a 66% chance of winning the car and on a 1/3 when pseudoparadox happens a 50%

edit:

based on the monty hall i just made a program that foresees the future

re:
'this is the door of 3 behind behind which it is the prize
a=math.GetRandomNumber(3)
'this is the door the host discarded the previous week
b= Math.GetRandomNumber(3)
'this is the door number you pick without having wathced the show the previous week
'and not knowing a door has been discarded
c= Math.GetRandomNumber(3)
'this is in case you pick the discraded by the host door by
'which you would be sent to sleep and start over next week
If b=c Then
Goto re
EndIf
'there are two left doors so its a 50% chance

If a=c Then
'If you get the right door right you win one coin
bob=bob+1
Else
'if you get the wrong door you lose one coin
bob=bob-1
EndIf
'remember its a 50% chance there being two door, if you win you win one if you lose you lose one
'now you can run the program and check how bad you lose for not swithcing door
TextWindow.WriteLine(bob)
Goto re