the crazy existentialist game with four cards

[Verhängnis]

No, reality hasn't gone anywhere.

[WTE_Galway]

You should do a decision tree so you do not forget stuff when doing this sort of probability.

All that went wrong is you totally forgot that there are two different combinations that win at stage two (3 then ACE) or (4 then ACE) and two different combinations that can win at stage three (3 then 4 then ACE) or (4 then 3 then ACE).

[raaaid]

Originally Posted by WTE_Galway

You should do a decision tree so you do not forget stuff when doing this sort of probability.

All that went wrong is you totally forgot that there are two different combinations that win at stage two (3 then ACE) or (4 then ACE) and two different combinations that can win at stage three (3 then 4 then ACE) or (4 then 3 then ACE).

wow im amazed i figured out right after posting but i though hey no way none notice

thanks a lot