Is this the New Winston Churchill?

[Kupsised]

Originally Posted by Kongo-Otto

Well if you ask me, i would say switch back to the Deutsch Mark as soon as possible, or kick out Greece from the Euro and let them have their Drachma again and of course no more bail outs for Greece or any other State!
There is absolutely no explanation for why the hard working German worker should pay the bills for other governments who lied, frauded and cheated since they came to the euro zone.

There is a fairly simple explanation, the German economy relies on the Euro and would lose a lot of trade without it. Therefore, the German economy relies on the Euro being strong which, in turn, means bailing Greece out because the Euro is partially dependant on the Greek economy. I agree that perhaps Greece shouldn't have been let into the Euro, but the amount of money Germany puts in to the bailouts is because the German economy is the most reliant, and very strongly reliant, on the Euro because it is very reliant on a high amount of exports within the Eurozone and the EU . No Euro = Less people buying German goods due to exchange rates and comission = less money for German businesses = less jobs in Germany = less economic growth, or even economic contraction.

Contrary to popular belief (and general appearance), politicians aren't stupid and wouldn't do something as big as the bailouts unless it was in their country's interests to do it.

[fruitbat]

Originally Posted by Kupsised

Contrary to popular belief (and general appearance), politicians aren't stupid and wouldn't do something as big as the bailouts unless it was in their country's interests to do it.

lol.

[whoarmongar]

I hate to sound like Raaid but am I the only one who can see the blindingly obvious ?

Within the eurozone theres only one country that is out of step economically with the rest.

Its Germany. ( ok and perhaps Netherlands and Belgium too).

What countries like Greece and Spain urgently need is a rapid depreciation of currency, this is at the moment impossible within the Euro.

Even with recent falls on the currency markets the Euro (which is defacto the new D/Mark) is underpinned by the fundamental strength of the German economy.

With all the eurozone locked into the same currency, this artificially bolsters the German economy even more,and perpetuates over a longer time scale the fundamental inequalities within the eurozone economies.

Entering the Euro wasnt an economic decision it was political, commited by politicians on idealogical grounds. well now the political consiquences are apparent for all to see.

Some hard choices are going to have to be made very soon, these choices will have long term effects for us all. Do you expect your politicians to make the correct decisions ?

Choice. As things are. Continue to prop up failing economies with billions in money, force these failing nations to suffer decades of austerity job losses and poverty and face the fact that even with "loans" and assistance eventually if these economies dont grow they will be unable to repay any assistance. If this happens that nation will be forced to default and leave the euro with catastrophic consiquences and possible dominoe effect to other weak euro currencies.

Choice. Planned expulsion of weak euro currencies from the euro into either there own currencies or even a "second division" Euro 2. So that these nations can have the "short sharp shock" as they reallign there economies thus avoiding decades of poverty and stagnation. A weaker currency would boost exports and although imports would cost more a period of inflation falling currencies and growth would probably have these nations back on track within a decade. There is an added advantage, most of these nations are in the sunny south of Europe. think of the cheap holidays !

Choice. Germany leaves the Euro ! If Germany went back to the DMark The Euro would fall on currency markets giving all the remaining Eurozone members an opportunity to go for growth, on the otherhand the DMark would rise harming German exports (unless the have productivity gains) and the market if given free reign would after a period reallign the exchange rates to realistic levels.

Choice Force ALL non Euro European countries into the Euro (including the Swiss), These nations either have large economies or financially strong balance sheets, they being within the eurozone would undoubtedly strengthen the euro.


The German taxpayer has been the greatest contributor to the european project for decades now. Until the euro came into force Germanys contributions had no tangible benefit for Germany except for a few subsidies that came back into Germany. However the Euro has aided the German economy massivly since its introduction. Its no surprise that the two largest exporting nations have artificially low exchange rates. If you doubt the truth of this statement just look at the chinese Govts insistance on not letting there currency float on the markets, pegging it artificially low.

Personally my choice for future prosperity for europe would be for Germany (plus anyone who wished to join the new dmark ) to leave the Euro, enabling the Euro to have massive falls.

The political ramifications are perhaps even more alarming and each seperate course has its own implications, and some as is the nature of these things totally unforseeable


As for the bigger picture what we are seeing is the effects of globalisation, the reconverence of the global economy and the economic future being reshaped in our lifetimes.

We live in interesting times.

[Kupsised]

Ehhh, with Germany leaving the Euro, there are more countries in the Euro than just Germany, Greece and Spain. For example, Finland, France, Estonia, Belgium.... none of those are having serious economic problems right now in a similar way to Greece or Spain and they wouldn't want to see a devaluation of the Euro either.

As for the two-teir Euro, that a possability, but it's more likely that the Euro would fall apart than that happening.

[Kongo-Otto]

Originally Posted by Kupsised

There is a fairly simple explanation, the German economy relies on the Euro and would lose a lot of trade without it.

Yes thanks for the Euro, i always wonder how we did survive before the Euro.
In the years before the Euro we had the Deutsche Mark which the German economy relied on and i think its not exaggerated to say that the German Economy did a bloody good job without the Euro.

The German economy survived two world wars, the great depression and a few other minor incident in history.
Do you really think, we couldn't survive the End of the Euro?
Maybe in the world of some Analyst from some Rating agencies, but otherwise the major part of the word Analyst is surely not "yst" so to say.

So and this is my last post in this thread i don't want to have another Infraction mail by the Forum Gestapo and their willfull denunciators.

[MB_Avro_UK]

Is it true?

Gordon Brown refused to join the Euro in order to annoy the Prime Minister, Tony Blair?

Tony Blair is and was pro-European.

Maybe it was the only good decision of Gordon Brown's career?

(Euro has again fallen against the Pound)

When's the next patch out?

Best Regards,
MB_Avro.

[Kupsised]

Originally Posted by Kongo-Otto

Yes thanks for the Euro, i always wonder how we did survive before the Euro.
In the years before the Euro we had the Deutsche Mark which the German economy relied on and i think its not exaggerated to say that the German Economy did a bloody good job without the Euro.

The German economy survived two world wars, the great depression and a few other minor incident in history.
Do you really think, we couldn't survive the End of the Euro?
Maybe in the world of some Analyst from some Rating agencies, but otherwise the major part of the word Analyst is surely not "yst" so to say.

So and this is my last post in this thread i don't want to have another Infraction mail by the Forum Gestapo and their willfull denunciators.

Of course the German economy could survive the end of the Euro, but it would certainly suffer for it, and my point was that it is better for the German government to loan a few billions to Greece now that it will get back in time than to watch several billions go down the pan never to return if the Euro collapsed.

Also, it's worth remembering that the only reason the German economy is in the position it is now is because of heavy investment in post-war Germany to make it economically strong but also economically dependant first on the US, and then on the EU. Germany would not be in the position it is without the EU and is, to a large extent, still fairly dependant on it. That's not a bad thing by any means, the EU is also very dependent on Germany too as it is the biggest economy in Europe and essentially bankrolls a lot of what the EU does, but the relationship is mutually beneficial, so in that sense neither would be in a particularly strong position without the other.

[addman]

Originally Posted by Kupsised

Ehhh, with Germany leaving the Euro, there are more countries in the Euro than just Germany, Greece and Spain. For example, Finland, France, Estonia, Belgium.... none of those are having serious economic problems right now in a similar way to Greece or Spain and they wouldn't want to see a devaluation of the Euro either.

We don't yet but troubles are brewing up ahead. Here in Finland the state are reducing the public funds by 5,5 billion euros IIRC this year so we can afford to pay off our debts. This at the same time as we are poring in money in to the big black fiscal hole that is Greece. This does not go well with the general public. We have a lot of issues here at home that will be a lot worse in the near future. Like in most EU countries, growth is low and maybe soon non-existant and unemployment is of course rising although the sitting government is doing all they can to make the numbers look good, i.e placing unemployed people in courses or work practice -which doesn't lead to anything for most- so that they won't be counted as unemployed in the statistics. They do the same thing in Sweden, where roughly every 4th young adult is unemployed, so probably even more. The card house that is the Euro is gonna fall but nobody's got the balls to blow the whistle.

At the same time, risk capitalists are sucking money out of partly public funded private schools and nursing homes to tax paradises. The government is reassuring people that selling out publicly owned things is good for the economy and produces jobs. That's weird because the last time I checked the owners of privately run nursing homes likes to see return on their investments and that means having as little staff as possible and investing as little as possible. Brings the recent "diaper scandal" in Sweden to mind where the staff of a private nursing home where told by their boss to cut down on the old peoples diapers to save a few bucks. Nice to come visit your grandmother/father that toiled for years without any comfy social security and see them all soiled in their own excrements, worthy end of the hard working generation right?!

Or privately run schools, handing out A's like there's no tomorrow to attract more students so they will receive more tax funding by the government, in Sweden the latest studies shows education is REGRESSING!! After about 15 years of privatization.

What will be left of our welfare in 20-25 years time? Nothing! I can tell you that with certain confidence. I'm ashamed knowing by the time my daughter is at my age she won't have the same possibilities and social security that I have. The markets, banks and risk capitalist have all gone out of control, the economy should be benefiting people not the other way around. Bring out the leashes!

[Kupsised]

I'm currently across the Baltic from you (southwards, Eestis) and work with quite a lot of Finns so I know the feeling, though I think it's the same all over. We have it to some extent back in the UK too, but obviously we're not as much of a welfare society as Finland or Sweden. Even so, it's nothing that a devaluation of the Euro would fix, which was my point, but with what you said, we can only hope for the best I suppose.

[ATAG_Doc]

I think we're in for some interesting times over the next decade.