Man Made Global Warming

[SlipBall]

Originally Posted by Redroach

Central Greenland is obviously very representative. Ask the people of Kiribati about climate change, but you should'nt wait all too long!

You really need to do your own research, and stop blaming yourself and man kind.


The last 10 millenia

To detail the more recent prehistoric temperature changes, scientists have drilled a number of ice cores in ancient glacial ice. Paleotemperature data from ice cores is considered to be our best continuous record of temperatures on the planet for time-spans up to about 420,000 years ago. Annual layering in undisturbed glacial ice allows us to precisely date the layers, and gives us a very accurate time and temperature sequence. The US government drilled the GISP 2 ice core in central Greenland over a five-year period, and the data is available here. This data set is useful because it reports temperatures (measured by oxygen isotopes) every 10 to 60 years — a good resolution. I sometimes see graphs of ice-core temperatures or greenhouse gasses that are based on measurements every 1,000 or 2,000 years: not nearly of close enough together for comparisons that are useful today. I downloaded and graphed these data in Excel myself. The following graphs have a time scale in years Before Present (BP).
The next graph of temperature from the ice core for the last 10,000 years (the current interglacial period) shows that Greenland is now colder than for most of that period (vertical scale in degrees C below zero). We can see the Medieval Warm Period 800 to 1,000 years ago was not particularly warm, and the Little Ice Age 150 to 650 years ago was one of the longest sustained cold periods during this interglacial. We are now recovering from this abnormal cold period, and the recovery started long before anthropogenic greenhouse gases were produced in any quantity. The curved trend line in green shows that we have been experiencing declining temperatures for the past 3,000 years, and are likely to be heading down toward the next ice age. Temperatures are only considered to be increasing if viewed for the last 150 years, from 1850 onward, which is roughly when thermometers began collecting global data, and is also the period of time the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has chosen for its review. The red portion of the curve is the recovery from the Little Ice Age. The amount of 20th century warming is unknown, since it was recently revealed that unknown portions of the international temperature databases have been tampered with, and the amount and extent of the tampering has not been publicly documented. It is likely that some warming has continued into the 20th century, but it is also likely that the amount of warming is not as great as the 0.6 degrees C that the global warming advocates would lead us to believe.
Our current warming is well within natural variation, and in view of the general decline in temperatures during the last half of this interglacial, is probably beneficial for mankind and most plants and animals. The graph clearly shows the Minoan Warming (about 3200 years ago), the Roman Warming (about 2000 years ago), and the Medieval Warm Period (about 900 years ago). Great advances in government, art, architecture, and science were made during these warmer times.

Greenland Temperatures - last 10,000 years

Long-term, temperatures are now declining (for the last 3,000 years), and we appear to be headed for the next 90,000 year ice age, right on schedule at the end of our current 10,000 year warm period. We have repeated this cycle 46 times in succession over the last 2.6 million years. And in case you are wondering, the previous Antarctic ice cores tell a broadly similar story. The following graph of ice core data from Vostok (vertical scale in degrees C variation from present) shows that Antarctica is also experiencing a long-term (4,000 year) cooling trend mirroring the Greenland GISP2 cooling trend. Though the individual temperature spikes and dips are different than in Greenland, the long-term temperature trend on the planet appears to be down, not up. And since it is so late in our current interglacial period, we could be concerned about global cooling.
Vostok Antarctica, last 12,000 years

The US is currently drilling a new ice core (see here), already at 1,512 meters where it is 7,700 years old, that is dated absolutely by counting annual ice layers, and each layer will be analyzed for temperature, greenhouse gases, and other constituents. This will give us the best Antarctic record yet. I believe the results will confirm the above. We geologists owe it to policy-makers to give them the benefit of our longer-term perspective. I believe we will regret regulating CO2, since doing so will not produce any measurable climate control, and may actually cause great harm to world economies. If we want to promote renewable energy sources (and I do), let us not penalize fossil fuel production and use. We may soon need all the energy we can produce, if the long-term cooling continues.

My main point is that natural variation is so large, even if we cease all emissions completely, the climate will still change (just look at the graphs). The cost of (possibly) slightly influencing this change is so great, why not spend a lot less adapting to it? Since we don’t know if the long-term climate is cooling or warming (I bet on cooling long-term), we could spend trillions to cut emissions, only to have the climate cool catastrophically on its own. What then? Pump as much CO2 into the air as possible?
Warming is not a killer, but global cooling is. It would only take a few years of global crop failures from cold weather to put populations at serious risk. Both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are thickening: Leave anything on the ice, and it gets buried pretty fast (for example: the US South Pole Base was recently reconstructed because the old base was being crushed by snow and ice, and WWII planes lost on Greenland’s southeast coast, were covered by 264 feet of ice in 50 years: see the image below). This is not rocket science. Sure, the sea-level edges are retreating (that is why we call them the ablation zones of a glacier), but they represent a minute portion of the continent-scale ice mass.

[Skoshi Tiger]

Originally Posted by 5./JG27.Farber

+1 A noble cause.




No like I said, the concept is great. I will explain what I ment better. I am an electrician, I look at buildings differently because I was in the construction trade (thanks bankers!) the current PV panals are do not tie in with the fabric of the building that well. In 5 -10 years they will be knackered and will deduct value from your property. You also loose some space from the house for the batteries. The "pioneers" who have them now will suffer in the future. Once they start making an actually roofing material thats also a PV panal, then we are in business! How do the current ones actual fix to the roof? Are there any holes in the roof to support them? - if there are you can bet they sealed the holes with something retarded like mastic or silicone... I wouldn't want a load of holes on my roof sealed with silicone which will degrade with UV... They pay for themselves in 5-10 years depending on who tells you, so how much longer will they last than that? Also these firms that fit the things are mostly on a quick money band wagon (government grants) so I expect the work is not being carried out by Roofers and Electricians but more an adhoc crew proberbly with one sparkie and a load of numpties...

It's actually quite funny, but when I got my Solar Power put on it was done through quite a good family friend. I took the day off work to be there when they were installed and had quite a good talk to the forman before it started..

He was blown away because I was the first person he had ever seen that had climbed up on the roof and talked about the installation.

We got clay tiles on our roof and the battons that the pannels mount onto went on brackets that slipped under the tiles and were secured onto the beams of the roof frame. I was quite happy with the guys that did our pannels BUT I think my friend had words to them before they turned up.

There are a LOT of Cowboys out there and,as always, it is best to get a few opinions on the companies work before you sign the contract!

Just checked the inverter and we've clocked up 7,507.7 Kilo Watts produced sinced we've got it installed. Using the rule of thumb of a ton of coal per Mega Watt, that has to give you a good fuzzy feeling.

It 'almost' makes up for my 1972 Valiant Charger that I drive around!

[brando]

Originally Posted by 5./JG27.Farber

I am an electrician, I look at buildings differently because I was in the construction trade (thanks bankers!) the current PV panals are do not tie in with the fabric of the building that well. In 5 -10 years they will be knackered and will deduct value from your property. You also loose some space from the house for the batteries. The "pioneers" who have them now will suffer in the future. Once they start making an actually roofing material thats also a PV panal, then we are in business! How do the current ones actual fix to the roof? Are there any holes in the roof to support them? - if there are you can bet they sealed the holes with something retarded like mastic or silicone... I wouldn't want a load of holes on my roof sealed with silicone which will degrade with UV... They pay for themselves in 5-10 years depending on who tells you, so how much longer will they last than that? Also these firms that fit the things are mostly on a quick money band wagon (government grants) so I expect the work is not being carried out by Roofers and Electricians but more an adhoc crew proberbly with one sparkie and a load of numpties...

It's only by getting these sorts of project started that improvements will come. Once house-builders are asked to provide solar panels on new-build housing - thereby bringing the process under the aegis of "building-control" regulations - then there will be no 'holes' with 'mastic' allowed. And if Bovis or Wimpey ask for panels to be built to a specific size to fit with standard roofing techniques, the panel-makers will roll over if they have any business sense at all. Likewise if the big firms ask the roof-truss manufacturers to beef up their product - maybe add a number of king-post trusses to enable strapping back to - then d'you imagine they're going to refuse?

"...more an adhoc crew proberbly with one sparkie and a load of numpties.." LOL!
If there's just a sparks and a load of unskilled labour - who's going to tell them what to do? The sparks? I don't think so.

[MD_Titus]

Originally Posted by 5./JG27.Farber

+1 A noble cause.




No like I said, the concept is great. I will explain what I ment better. I am an electrician, I look at buildings differently because I was in the construction trade (thanks bankers!) the current PV panals are do not tie in with the fabric of the building that well. In 5 -10 years they will be knackered and will deduct value from your property. You also loose some space from the house for the batteries. The "pioneers" who have them now will suffer in the future. Once they start making an actually roofing material thats also a PV panal, then we are in business! How do the current ones actual fix to the roof? Are there any holes in the roof to support them? - if there are you can bet they sealed the holes with something retarded like mastic or silicone... I wouldn't want a load of holes on my roof sealed with silicone which will degrade with UV... They pay for themselves in 5-10 years depending on who tells you, so how much longer will they last than that? Also these firms that fit the things are mostly on a quick money band wagon (government grants) so I expect the work is not being carried out by Roofers and Electricians but more an adhoc crew proberbly with one sparkie and a load of numpties...

fair enough, but early adopters drive development of better and more efficient pv panels (or anything else for that matter, ala how the market works, supply and demand etc. etc.). if they started making roofing tiles that were also pv panels, rather than the crude bolt-on things we have now, then that solves the "devaluing of property" problem. having said that - low lying property will eventually have it's value eroded, much like it's foundations, should the more downbeat forecasts turn out to be accurate.

Originally Posted by SlipBall

Not sure how you could claim that...only a very few simple minds believe in man made climate change, put forth for an easy monetary gain from the foolish people, to the pockets of slicker people...do you understand that the earth has been warmer in the past? Do you not understand that it is the Sun? Do you understand cycle's

i believe the prevalent notion is more that it is human accelerated climate change. that there are cycles in global temperature and sea level is not in doubt nor contested, it is the rate of these changes that causes alarm.

[5./JG27.Farber]

Eventually I think you will see an actual roof tile rather than a system mounted over the tiles...

Glad that worked out for you Tiger, 7.5MW is pretty cool.

[SlipBall]

Originally Posted by MD_Titus

fair enough, but early adopters drive development of better and more efficient pv panels (or anything else for that matter, ala how the market works, supply and demand etc. etc.). if they started making roofing tiles that were also pv panels, rather than the crude bolt-on things we have now, then that solves the "devaluing of property" problem. having said that - low lying property will eventually have it's value eroded, much like it's foundations, should the more downbeat forecasts turn out to be accurate.





i believe the prevalent notion is more that it is human accelerated climate change. that there are cycles in global temperature and sea level is not in doubt nor contested, it is the rate of these changes that causes alarm.

But you are saying that it is getting warmer when it is really getting colder

[Walshy]

Originally Posted by SlipBall

You really need to do your own research, and stop blaming yourself and man kind.


The last 10 millenia

To detail the more recent prehistoric temperature changes, scientists have drilled a number of ice cores in ancient glacial ice. Paleotemperature data from ice cores is considered to be our best continuous record of temperatures on the planet for time-spans up to about 420,000 years ago. Annual layering in undisturbed glacial ice allows us to precisely date the layers, and gives us a very accurate time and temperature sequence. The US government drilled the GISP 2 ice core in central Greenland over a five-year period, and the data is available here. This data set is useful because it reports temperatures (measured by oxygen isotopes) every 10 to 60 years — a good resolution. I sometimes see graphs of ice-core temperatures or greenhouse gasses that are based on measurements every 1,000 or 2,000 years: not nearly of close enough together for comparisons that are useful today. I downloaded and graphed these data in Excel myself. The following graphs have a time scale in years Before Present (BP).
The next graph of temperature from the ice core for the last 10,000 years (the current interglacial period) shows that Greenland is now colder than for most of that period (vertical scale in degrees C below zero). We can see the Medieval Warm Period 800 to 1,000 years ago was not particularly warm, and the Little Ice Age 150 to 650 years ago was one of the longest sustained cold periods during this interglacial. We are now recovering from this abnormal cold period, and the recovery started long before anthropogenic greenhouse gases were produced in any quantity. The curved trend line in green shows that we have been experiencing declining temperatures for the past 3,000 years, and are likely to be heading down toward the next ice age. Temperatures are only considered to be increasing if viewed for the last 150 years, from 1850 onward, which is roughly when thermometers began collecting global data, and is also the period of time the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has chosen for its review. The red portion of the curve is the recovery from the Little Ice Age. The amount of 20th century warming is unknown, since it was recently revealed that unknown portions of the international temperature databases have been tampered with, and the amount and extent of the tampering has not been publicly documented. It is likely that some warming has continued into the 20th century, but it is also likely that the amount of warming is not as great as the 0.6 degrees C that the global warming advocates would lead us to believe.
Our current warming is well within natural variation, and in view of the general decline in temperatures during the last half of this interglacial, is probably beneficial for mankind and most plants and animals. The graph clearly shows the Minoan Warming (about 3200 years ago), the Roman Warming (about 2000 years ago), and the Medieval Warm Period (about 900 years ago). Great advances in government, art, architecture, and science were made during these warmer times.

Greenland Temperatures - last 10,000 years

Long-term, temperatures are now declining (for the last 3,000 years), and we appear to be headed for the next 90,000 year ice age, right on schedule at the end of our current 10,000 year warm period. We have repeated this cycle 46 times in succession over the last 2.6 million years. And in case you are wondering, the previous Antarctic ice cores tell a broadly similar story. The following graph of ice core data from Vostok (vertical scale in degrees C variation from present) shows that Antarctica is also experiencing a long-term (4,000 year) cooling trend mirroring the Greenland GISP2 cooling trend. Though the individual temperature spikes and dips are different than in Greenland, the long-term temperature trend on the planet appears to be down, not up. And since it is so late in our current interglacial period, we could be concerned about global cooling.
Vostok Antarctica, last 12,000 years

The US is currently drilling a new ice core (see here), already at 1,512 meters where it is 7,700 years old, that is dated absolutely by counting annual ice layers, and each layer will be analyzed for temperature, greenhouse gases, and other constituents. This will give us the best Antarctic record yet. I believe the results will confirm the above. We geologists owe it to policy-makers to give them the benefit of our longer-term perspective. I believe we will regret regulating CO2, since doing so will not produce any measurable climate control, and may actually cause great harm to world economies. If we want to promote renewable energy sources (and I do), let us not penalize fossil fuel production and use. We may soon need all the energy we can produce, if the long-term cooling continues.

My main point is that natural variation is so large, even if we cease all emissions completely, the climate will still change (just look at the graphs). The cost of (possibly) slightly influencing this change is so great, why not spend a lot less adapting to it? Since we don’t know if the long-term climate is cooling or warming (I bet on cooling long-term), we could spend trillions to cut emissions, only to have the climate cool catastrophically on its own. What then? Pump as much CO2 into the air as possible?
Warming is not a killer, but global cooling is. It would only take a few years of global crop failures from cold weather to put populations at serious risk. Both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are thickening: Leave anything on the ice, and it gets buried pretty fast (for example: the US South Pole Base was recently reconstructed because the old base was being crushed by snow and ice, and WWII planes lost on Greenland’s southeast coast, were covered by 264 feet of ice in 50 years: see the image below). This is not rocket science. Sure, the sea-level edges are retreating (that is why we call them the ablation zones of a glacier), but they represent a minute portion of the continent-scale ice mass.

Looks like the Minoan event was considerably more of a rise than todays warming event looking at the graphs. The current warming pales into insignificance in comparison ...........

[MadBlaster]

we discovered fire for a reason. we are part of the natural cycle. the cycle of transforming carbon from solid-liquid-gas. we are carbon based life forms. carbon is everywhere. get a grip.

[WTE_Galway]

Originally Posted by arthursmedley

This is what interests me. Why has denial of climate change been turned into this symbol of rightwing virility? I'm puzzled by this phenomena.

Seriously ? I thought the connection was obvious. If climate change is true then fixing it would require government intervention in the profit making activities of American business and this, according to Accepted Right Wing American Doctrine, equates to Socialism.

Hence for these people, climate change MUST be false, even before they look at a skeric of scientific data, and furthrmore it is un-American and even downright communist to support climate change.

Its actually important to realise the initial denial is political and Climate Change is deemed a false doctrine for political reasons before any consideration of the science ever takes place. In fact the only reason to look at the science at all is to find means to undermine or discredit it.



Look up the George C. Marshall Institute if you want an example of how its done.

[MadBlaster]

Of course, Al Gore and Michael Moore don't have a profit motive. All those phds don't have a profit motive. Hollywood has no motive. The Weather Channel doesn't have a profit motive. GE and $50 lightbulbs, no profit motive there. Carbon tax credit, no wealth re-distribution motives there...how long do I go on.

Please pull your head out and take a look around. This has been going on for decades because phds couldn't find anything else to do to be productive in society. They see climate change as a money maker. Really, it has evolved into institutional welfare. But that would be degrading to call it what it really is. So they mask it as a noble cause. "I can't figure out anything to do with my life and my degree, so I go work on climate change!". A peddler of deceit, lies, half truths, manipulation...etc. Something to be real proud of when you wake up in the morning and look at yourself in the mirror. "I'm a good guy"!