Reno air crash ( P51 )

Originally Posted by bongodriver

Oops....I got the figures wrong, it was 18deaths in 44 years

That is about 50 air show deaths every year in the US.

Originally Posted by bongodriver

No read again, I got it wrong, it's 18 in 44 years, that's like 18 every 44 years by my calculations, 150 a year is something you just made up.

The Blue Angels and Thunderbirds fly about 70 shows total every year. If we only count those shows a ratio of 18 deaths for every 44 years is about about 30 air show deaths every year in the US. Even if air shows were not banned we would run out of pilots.

edit it's worse (50ish) if we count all the air shows

[bongodriver]

Originally Posted by IamNotDavid

That is about 50 air show deaths every year in the US.

Well no...it's actually .4 deaths year at Reno alone, which is considered to be of the highest fatality rate, in order to have 50 deaths a year there would have to be 125 events with an equivalent average fatality rate a year, but the reality is that air shows as a whole have minuscule fatality rates and that is on a global scale, theres probably less than 50 deaths a year at air shows around the whole world.

Originally Posted by bongodriver

Well no...it's actually .4 deaths year at Reno alone, which is considered to be of the highest fatality rate, in order to have 50 deaths a year there would have to be 125 events with an equivalent average fatality rate a year, but the reality is that air shows as a whole have minuscule fatality rates and that is on a global scale, theres probably less than 50 deaths a year at air shows around the whole world.

That is my point. There are about 140 big air shows each year in the US. If the fatality rate were the same as Reno there would be 30 air show deaths every year. Compared the air racing the fatality rate for air shows is minuscule. Hell, the fatality rate in the Colosseum was probably favorable to air racing.

[bongodriver]

Originally Posted by IamNotDavid

That is my point. There are about 140 big air shows each year in the US. If the fatality rate were the same as Reno there would be 30 air show deaths every year. Compared the air racing the fatality rate for air shows is minuscule. Hell, the fatality rate in the Colosseum was probably favorable to air racing.

Well no, you were trying to make some weird claim that 150 people were being killed at air shows every year, in the US alone, the fact is airshow deaths will not gain in rate at all.

Originally Posted by bongodriver

Well no, you were trying to make some weird claim that 150 people were being killed at air shows every year, in the US alone, the fact is airshow deaths will not gain in rate at all.

No, I wasn't. 150 would be the number to die if the rate was 44 in 18 years that you quoted for Reno. 18 in 44 years equates to 30 dead each year at air shows. 30 dead each year is still enough to be the end of air shows.

[bongodriver]

Originally Posted by IamNotDavid

No, I wasn't. 150 would be the number to die if the rate was 44 in 18 years that you quoted for Reno. 18 in 44 years equates to 30 dead each year at air shows. 30 dead each year is still enough to be the end of air shows.

No 18 in 44 years is .4 deaths a year, remember I mentioned I got the figures switched...please pay attention, even if it was 44 in 18 years that's still only 2.4 deaths a year, either way the fact is there aren't 30 deaths a year, even if in one single year there are a total of 30 deaths the subsequent average will be less, you are in a sad strange fantasy land my friend.

[Robotic Pope]

Originally Posted by IamNotDavid

No, I wasn't. 150 would be the number to die if the rate was 44 in 18 years that you quoted for Reno. 18 in 44 years equates to 30 dead each year at air shows. 30 dead each year is still enough to be the end of air shows.

I don't know why you are talking about the dangers and numbers of deaths when you made it pretty clear earlier in the thread that you only care about the WWII aircraft and not about the people.

Originally Posted by bongodriver

No 18 in 44 years is .4 deaths a year, remember I mentioned I got the figures switched...please pay attention, even if it was 44 in 18 years that's still only 2.4 deaths a year, either way the fact is there aren't 30 deaths a year, even if in one single year there are a total of 30 deaths the subsequent average will be less, you are in a sad strange fantasy land my friend.

Yes, it's .4 deaths per year over 70 shows. 70*.4 is 28. I rounded up to 30.

So, if the death rate for air shows was the same as for Reno we would see 30 dead every year at air shows in the US. It's simple math.

Originally Posted by Robotic Pope

I don't know why you are talking about the dangers and numbers of deaths when you made it pretty clear earlier in the thread that you only care about the WWII aircraft and not about the people.

I'm just pointing out that if air shows had the same death rate as Reno we would quickly run out of air show pilots.