Yes, to be realistic you need an online and offline poll.

Then you need to need to allow for the concerted 'Let's pm round and bump this and show them who is boss silly-high-score' campaign' and work back from there (and allow for Atag etc) and you may end up nearer the mark.

Equally, allow for the personal vendettas and negative campaigns, and you would probably end up with a 5/6. Hey, who needs history anyway....