Thanks for the advice everyone, I finally have it working.
The problem was in fact graphics driver related. I guess the key lesson here is not to let Windows manage an NVidia graphics driver upgrade for you (as I did last month).
Everything else seemed fine, all my other games are working, but I guess it was porked enough somewhere during the process that CoD had insurmountable issues.
Running driver sweeper and reinstalling the NVidia drivers has allowed me to start the game.
Cheers!
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