I think you kind of understimate the value of initiative in this match up:
Bear vs Marauder : Both same speed meaning that the marauder can always escape the bear with his higher initative.
The bear can only use his running ability once. That means, if the bear plays it well, he can inflict damage to the marauder once for a max 15 (max damage 10 x 1,5 for critical attack)
But the marauder got the swift stroke ability that can be recharge. So the MArauder, with higeher initiative can hit the bear with no-retaliation at the end of turn then escape away for 3 turns and use again that ability inflicting damages. The trick here is that the Marauder can't afford the bear to have him right beside him. If the marauder wants to keep usigng the swift stroke ability without getting attack he needs to keep at least 1 hex between him and the bear all the time. I think it's doable with a unit having higher initiative, you need to plan your movement well.
In the long run I can'T see the bear winning a 5 sets match. For a tie break, the strategy describe above won't work so the bear win. But on a normal grid the MArauder can manage to outrun the bear then hit him then run again enough time to kill the bear.
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